Read Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment By Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein
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Ebook About From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.Book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Review :
If one would expect the authors to have built their Noise (a.k.a. variance) thesis using research and references which attended to the cautions and caveats of the American Statistical Association (2016) regarding p-values and the now deprecated "statistical significance," one will be most disappointed. One should not be surprised as many of the references illustrating their thesis are in some cases a half-century old, when "statistical significance" was the key to getting published and the core of degree-earning dissertations.Consider that the following studies listed in the Notes to the Introduction all used p-values: (2) Child Protection and Child Outcomes: Measuring the Effects of Foster Care (4) Refugee Roulette: Disparities in Asylum AdjudicationIn Chapter 1: (14) A Survey(!!!) of 47 Judges (dated 1977) (Survey vs. Random Control Study) (16) Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions cites a p-value <.0001 on page 5... and similar p-value references associated with judges' differential and variance in sentencing: related to food breaks, nearby NFL Team winning recently, birthdays, outside air temperature. IMHO, the identification of these explanatory factors based on p-values are bogus and illustrative of John Ioannidis' 2005 paper: Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.It is disconcerting that these scholar authors utilize many questionable references to architect a thesis about what is more commonly known as variance. As the normal Gaussian distribution is ubiquitous, one should not be startled that selected ranges within it vary significantly.Given the presence of uncertainty and the idiosyncracy and variability of individual experience, human judgments will vary. Human judgment is noisy! DUH !!!The authors have failed their scholarship and profession. I don't have a Nobel prize nor expect to get one. So maybe this review is reflective of my dumbness. But this book was nothing like "Thinking Fast and Slow", primarily because the core concept seems simple enough but beaten to a unnecessarily nasty pulp.The basic premise seems to be that decisions have noise in them (duh) and its important to understand that we should evaluate the decision making process and not just the outcome. Accuracy, Precision, and Bias are terms familiar to anyone with a basic understanding of statistics; for others, a couple of early examples focusing on shooting targets easily educates the three terms and their differences. The authors keep on stating the same concepts in a number of ways for the first 5-6 chapters. And very often, simple observations are turned to very dense phrases without really serving any purpose than trying to sound very academic or scholarly. (For example, "..what they are trying to achieve is, regardless of verifiability, is the internal signal of completion provided by the coherence between the facts of the case and the judgement. And what they should be trying to achieve...is the judgement process that would provide the best judgement over an ensemble of similar cases") . Then the authors spend a chapter or two differentiating "predictive" and "evaluative" judgements only to conclude that the difference is "fuzzy" (genius observation) and a decision will usually require both.If you are able to grind your way through the first 3 Parts (12 chapters), you will be able to pick up some new insights in Part IV and V that discuss on how variability/noise occurs and their various sources. Conducting a "noise audit" and what constitutes decision "hygiene" are sections worth reading for those whose roles require constant synthesis of inputs from various experts/sources/stakeholders etc.Overall, the unnecessarily dense style that overcomplicates a simple message, lack of a clear target audience, and a narrative arc that just takes too long to provide new insights or provocative thoughts, makes this a fairly dull read. Read Online Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Download Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment PDF Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Mobi Free Reading Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Download Free Pdf Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment PDF Online Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Mobi Online Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Reading Online Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Read Online Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein Download Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein PDF Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein Mobi Free Reading Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein Download Free Pdf Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein PDF Online Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein Mobi Online Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein Reading Online Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. SunsteinRead Supercharged JavaScript Graphics: with HTML5 canvas, jQuery, and More By Raffaele Cecco
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